Dear All,
So,
here we are—again. It took the US not even a month to break the MoU
with Iran. Not only did Washington never live up to its promise to end
the war in Lebanon by restraining Israel, but it also tried to bypass
the Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz by siphoning ships through
the “southern route.” This violates Article 5 of the MoU, the provision
that it’s Iran (alone) that “will make arrangement” to guarantee safe
passage of vessels.
No
surprise here. It was clear the USA would try everything it could to
take away Iran’s most important bargaining chip. And sure enough, it
used the pause in hostilities to try to sneakily establish its own
partial maritime sphere of control over one side of the
strait—something, had it succeeded, the USA would have step by step
expanded into total control of the entire waterway. No doubt.
Did they really think Iran would just sit back and let that happen?
Well, Tehran did not. Just as my guests (see below), Prof. Mohammad Marandi and Larry Johnson
predicted. And the result is that the USA now once again conducts
“self-defense strikes” (what an amazing euphemism!) to somehow assert
that they have military tools to get their way. But, what is this
supposed to achieve? Round 1 of the war, in 2025, established that Iran
can hit any target in the region it chooses and that there is nothing
Israel or the USA can do against it. Round 2 in March and April
established that even US bases and all its Navy in the Gulf are sitting
ducks and that Iran would always respond in kind to any strikes.
And now, they want to test this again? Madness!
On
top of that, the US is choosing to go back to kinetic war right after
the immense funeral procession for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. I wonder if
they mistook the funeral for mass-protests and are dreaming once more of
regime change? Then again, Lyndsey Graham just passed away on Saturday,
one of the main ideologues of this madness. Maybe it’s his parting gift
to the American people: Yet another round of war to increase the speed
of imperial decline even further.
Oh,
Graham. I wanna say RIP. But with that guy, it’s most likely RIW. I’m
sure he’ll have a good time down there with Hitler and the other
monsters.
Best,
Pascal
04 Jul, 2026
Laith
Marouf reports from Lebanon: Israeli attacks continue despite an MOU;
Hezbollah, reinforced by Iranian lessons, shifted to agile guerrilla
tactics (FPVs, fiber-optic drones, ATGMs), inflicting heavy Israeli
losses. Assassinations galvanized renewal; media-savvy resistance eroded
Western narratives. Marouf warns resumed US–Iran/region clashes likely
after the World Cup.
06 Jul, 2026
Amb.
Chas Freeman warns the US-led order is collapsing: the Iran war pause
and violated MOU, growing U.S.–Israel rupture, Lebanon-Hezbollah
dynamics, shifting U.S. politics, Europe’s risky Russophobia and Ukraine
escalation, cautious China–Taiwan calculus, and the broader failure of
Western policy—making diplomacy and regional strategic autonomy
inevitable.
07 Jul, 2026
Prof.
Vladimir Brovkin argues Europe lacks public will for war while Putin
leverages electoral shifts and restraint; U.S. politics pose greater
escalation risks. Russia’s growing conventional military‑industrial
strength and time advantage enable advances in Ukraine, aiming for
Novorossiya/neutral buffer states, a Kaliningrad corridor, and an
eastern pivot.
08 Jul, 2026
Prof.
S. M. Marandi: US violating MOU—withholding Iranian assets, opening
Hormuz corridors; Iran using Hormuz “faucet” and nuclear leverage,
striking US bases in retaliation. Iran rebuilding defenses, deepening
Gulf bilateral ties (Saudi, Qatar, UAE), strong domestic support after
Khamenei’s funeral, warns risk of renewed war; Europe declining.
08 Jul, 2026
Kajsa
Ekis Ekman reports from Havana: while locals think a U.S. invasion
unlikely, the decades-long U.S. blockade is causing food, water, and
electricity shortages. Cuba remains culturally resilient; the government
is courting foreign investment, citizens prepare for a “people’s war,”
and she urges visitors to come now.
09 Jul, 2026
Larry
C. Johnson warns the US violated its MOU with Iran; Iran enforces PGSA
in the Strait of Hormuz and retaliates. Predicts further Iranian
strikes, urges targeting US tankers/airfields. On Ukraine, Russia has
escalated to war footing, expanding offensives across six axes, risking
NATO confrontation.
11 Jul, 2026
Pietro
A. Shakarian: Iran’s funeral revealed regional support and exposed U.S.
weakness; Iran leveraged Hormuz and an MOU to gain leverage. Armenia’s
election was rigged, Pashinyan grows authoritarian amid a risky
U.S.-backed “corridor.” Russia advances slowly in Ukraine; Europe, NATO,
Finland’s neutrality and U.S. decline worry.
Disclaimer: The above are AI-generated summaries.
