Neutrality Studies Weekly Recap #13

 

Mar 21 → Mar 28, 2026 Mar 29   READ IN APP   Dear All, After one full month of an illegal war of aggression against Iran, the situation for the US/Israeli attack front is getting more and more desperate. While a quick victory was the dream, the transatlantic zionist club is now waking up to the nightmare of a prolonged missile and drone war of attrition. From my talks with Prof Marandi and Western experts like Patrick Henningsen and Arta Moeini, I‘m quite convinced that neither a government collapse nor any kind of military defection is likely. Iran will continue to retaliate in kind for all attacks on its territory, to reestablish the principle of reciprocity. This is maybe the surest of insights I gained so far. Iran is very deliberate in its answers to the attacks. It does not escalate first, but always makes sure to hit targets of equal value to the other side (the US/Israeli + Gulf State conglomerate), as to rob the attacker of the one thing they enjoyed most over the past 70 years: impunity. That one is gone. Iran‘s strategy of symmetric warfare is aimed at achieving a change in the calculus of the enemy. So far, both Washington and Tel Aviv, are seemingly still operating under the old paradigm, thinking that they can strike their adversary indiscriminately, without suffering comparable damage. Iran is apparently determined to change that for good and, in the process, drive the Americans completely out of the region. Whether this will succeed and whether the US is crazy enough to actually go for a ground invasion of one of the islands—as many of my guests fear—remains to be seen. But this is not gonna be a guerrilla war like Vietnam or Afghanistan. This will remain a symmetric war as Tehran seems determined to stand its ground. I am still praying for an easter miracle to end the slaughter. The human toll in Iran and Lebanon is horrible. Pascal Upgrade to paid US Sacrifices Gulf States for Empire | Ex- Foreign Minister Evarist Bartolo 22 Mar, 2026 Ex‑Foreign Minister Evarist Bartolo argues US military bases in Gulf states sacrifice their security and sovereignty—becoming “lightning rods” for Iranian strikes—while drone/missile tech makes bases obsolete. He cites Malta’s neutrality, warns of US economic coercion, and urges sovereign, multipolar diplomacy over alignment. Iran Oil Endgame: USA Destroys Global THERMODYNAMIC Economy. | Warwick Powell 23 Mar, 2026 Warwick Powell frames the West Asia conflict through thermoeconomics: declining energy returns and rising informational costs drive systemic entropy. He links use-value vs exchange-value, liquidity expansion, and energy-driven conflict; predicts shortages, higher prices, moves to electrification, hydrogen, small nuclear, edge computing, copper stress, and urges redistribution plus information interoperability. World War III Imminent | L. Kasradze & A. Kachikian 25 Mar, 2026 L. Kasradze and A. Kachikian warn US-led attacks on Iran risk severe economic shock, Gulf destabilization, and spillover to the South Caucasus, empowering Turkey and Azerbaijan and endangering Armenia. They decry Western propaganda and predict a proxy World War III unless a US, Russia and China balance enforces restraint. US Plays With Total War Insanity | Patrick Henningsen 25 Mar, 2026 Patrick Henningsen, reporting after a pre-war Iran trip, says protests were co-opted by foreign provocateurs, Western media propagated false narratives, US–Israel lobby drives risky escalation, energy sovereignty fuels conflicts, and Trump’s strategic tweets may enable market-insider gains—warning of dangerous drift toward total war. Iran Ready To Kill Ground Invasion; No Negotiations; Next Oil Shock | Prof. S.M. Marandi 26 Mar, 2026 Prof. S.M. Marandi warns a likely imminent U.S. ground invasion, condemns U.S.-Israeli bombing (≈2,000 dead), says negotiations are fake, Iran will retaliate—potentially targeting Gulf oil infrastructure—risking global oil shock. He calls for reparations, Gulf states expelling U.S. bases, and highlights Western media censorship and a bounty against him. 🚨 Breaking: US Plans Weekend Iran Invasion. Devastating Consequences | Amb. Chas Freeman 27 Mar, 2026 Amb. Chas Freeman warns Iran holds “escalation dominance” after US‑Israeli strikes; US munitions depleted, global posture weakened. He predicts a possible weekend assault on Iranian islands, severe regional oil, shipping and desalination impacts, accelerated nuclear proliferation, Gulf states’ dilemma, and strained Western alliances. Iran Kills US Gulf Hegemony. Irreversible Power Shift | Dr. Arta Moeini & Lasha Kasradze 27 Mar, 2026 Dr. Arta Moeini and Lasha Kasradze argue the US–Israel strike backfired: Khamenei’s death fortified Iran’s regime, revealing its multilayered resilience. Iran gained strategic leverage—control of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief—accelerating the end of US unipolarity, exposing GCC vulnerabilities and forcing difficult choices for allies, including Georgia. Brink of Escalation: Failing War & Desperate Moves | Prof. Steven Starr 28 Mar, 2026 Prof. Steven Starr warns the US–Israel campaign against Iran is failing: Iran’s missile strikes and underground missile cities have forced U.S. base withdrawals, crippled Gulf oil/LNG, and degraded air defenses. Starr fears disastrous escalations—ground invasions, attacks on desalination/refineries, or nuclear exchange—and blames ideological leadership.