Neutrality Studies Weekly Recap #28

 

July 4 → July 11, 2026 Jul 14   READ IN APP   Dear All, So, here we are—again. It took the US not even a month to break the MoU with Iran. Not only did Washington never live up to its promise to end the war in Lebanon by restraining Israel, but it also tried to bypass the Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz by siphoning ships through the “southern route.” This violates Article 5 of the MoU, the provision that it’s Iran (alone) that “will make arrangement” to guarantee safe passage of vessels. No surprise here. It was clear the USA would try everything it could to take away Iran’s most important bargaining chip. And sure enough, it used the pause in hostilities to try to sneakily establish its own partial maritime sphere of control over one side of the strait—something, had it succeeded, the USA would have step by step expanded into total control of the entire waterway. No doubt. Did they really think Iran would just sit back and let that happen? Well, Tehran did not. Just as my guests (see below), Prof. Mohammad Marandi and Larry Johnson predicted. And the result is that the USA now once again conducts “self-defense strikes” (what an amazing euphemism!) to somehow assert that they have military tools to get their way. But, what is this supposed to achieve? Round 1 of the war, in 2025, established that Iran can hit any target in the region it chooses and that there is nothing Israel or the USA can do against it. Round 2 in March and April established that even US bases and all its Navy in the Gulf are sitting ducks and that Iran would always respond in kind to any strikes. And now, they want to test this again? Madness! On top of that, the US is choosing to go back to kinetic war right after the immense funeral procession for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. I wonder if they mistook the funeral for mass-protests and are dreaming once more of regime change? Then again, Lyndsey Graham just passed away on Saturday, one of the main ideologues of this madness. Maybe it’s his parting gift to the American people: Yet another round of war to increase the speed of imperial decline even further. Oh, Graham. I wanna say RIP. But with that guy, it’s most likely RIW. I’m sure he’ll have a good time down there with Hitler and the other monsters. Best, Pascal Upgrade to paid Hezbollah Learns from Iran, Winning Big Against Zionism | Laith Marouf 04 Jul, 2026 Laith Marouf reports from Lebanon: Israeli attacks continue despite an MOU; Hezbollah, reinforced by Iranian lessons, shifted to agile guerrilla tactics (FPVs, fiber-optic drones, ATGMs), inflicting heavy Israeli losses. Assassinations galvanized renewal; media-savvy resistance eroded Western narratives. Marouf warns resumed US–Iran/region clashes likely after the World Cup. Three Front War MADNESS: Washington Just Lost Everything | Amb. Chas Freeman 06 Jul, 2026 Amb. Chas Freeman warns the US-led order is collapsing: the Iran war pause and violated MOU, growing U.S.–Israel rupture, Lebanon-Hezbollah dynamics, shifting U.S. politics, Europe’s risky Russophobia and Ukraine escalation, cautious China–Taiwan calculus, and the broader failure of Western policy—making diplomacy and regional strategic autonomy inevitable. Russia’s TRAP for Europe Is Working | Prof. Vladimir Brovkin 07 Jul, 2026 Prof. Vladimir Brovkin argues Europe lacks public will for war while Putin leverages electoral shifts and restraint; U.S. politics pose greater escalation risks. Russia’s growing conventional military‑industrial strength and time advantage enable advances in Ukraine, aiming for Novorossiya/neutral buffer states, a Kaliningrad corridor, and an eastern pivot. Iran War Round 3? US Desperation Setting In | Prof. S. M. Marandi 08 Jul, 2026 Prof. S. M. Marandi: US violating MOU—withholding Iranian assets, opening Hormuz corridors; Iran using Hormuz “faucet” and nuclear leverage, striking US bases in retaliation. Iran rebuilding defenses, deepening Gulf bilateral ties (Saudi, Qatar, UAE), strong domestic support after Khamenei’s funeral, warns risk of renewed war; Europe declining. Report From Havanna: Cuba Suffering but Unbroken | K.E. Ekman 08 Jul, 2026 Kajsa Ekis Ekman reports from Havana: while locals think a U.S. invasion unlikely, the decades-long U.S. blockade is causing food, water, and electricity shortages. Cuba remains culturally resilient; the government is courting foreign investment, citizens prepare for a “people’s war,” and she urges visitors to come now. Russia’s Patience Is OVER. Iran War Starts Again. NATO Summit Joke. | Larry C. Johnson 09 Jul, 2026 Larry C. Johnson warns the US violated its MOU with Iran; Iran enforces PGSA in the Strait of Hormuz and retaliates. Predicts further Iranian strikes, urges targeting US tankers/airfields. On Ukraine, Russia has escalated to war footing, expanding offensives across six axes, risking NATO confrontation. The FATAL Two-Front Mistake—The USA Just Fell For The TRAP | Pietro A. Shakarian 11 Jul, 2026 Pietro A. Shakarian: Iran’s funeral revealed regional support and exposed U.S. weakness; Iran leveraged Hormuz and an MOU to gain leverage. Armenia’s election was rigged, Pashinyan grows authoritarian amid a risky U.S.-backed “corridor.” Russia advances slowly in Ukraine; Europe, NATO, Finland’s neutrality and U.S. decline worry. Disclaimer: The above are AI-generated summaries.